Geopolitical Easing and Policy Shift Drive Mixed Rally | Frontier Lab Crypto Weekly
Market Overview
General Market Conditions
This week, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a clear divergence: while Bitcoin experienced a choppy upward trend, altcoins failed to follow suit, instead maintaining a downward consolidation trajectory. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose slightly from 28% last week to 34%, but overall remains within bearish territory.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The stablecoin market continued its upward momentum from the previous week, with both USDT and USDC posting synchronized growth:
- USDT: Market cap reached $157.3 billion, up 0.98% week-on-week. The strong upward trend resumed, with weekly inflows once again exceeding $1 billion — reaching $1.6 billion. This suggests a renewed and intensified wave of capital entering the market.
- USDC: Market cap grew to $61.8 billion, a 0.65% weekly increase, continuing its moderate upward trajectory and contributing positive inflows.
Key Takeaways: USDT’s growth has re-accelerated, likely driven by increased participation from non-U.S. institutional capital. Meanwhile, USDC’s steady rise reflects cautious optimism from U.S.-based investors. Recent capital flow trends suggest that regardless of market direction, investor funds are actively entering the market — indicating strong underlying confidence.
Geopolitical Risk Eases
- Middle East Tensions Ease: Following U.S.-mediated military engagement, both Iran and Israel declared ceasefires, easing geopolitical tensions and alleviating fears of broader regional conflict.
- Positive Diplomatic Signals: Trump leveraged the situation to restart Gaza peace talks, injecting new hope for long-term stability in the region.
- Declining Risk Premiums: As geopolitical risk subsides, investor demand for risk compensation has diminished, paving the way for risk asset recovery. Crypto, as a high-beta asset class, benefits directly from this shift in sentiment.
Improved Monetary Policy Outlook
- Dovish Fed Tone: Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more measured stance in his Congressional testimony, easing market fears of overly aggressive tightening.
- Rising Rate-Cut Expectations: Powell indicated that if inflation remains under control, rate cuts could begin as early as September. Markets now anticipate rate cuts in both September and December.
- Medium-to-Long Term Easing: Expectations for up to five rate cuts in 2026 are fueling a more favorable liquidity outlook, providing a constructive backdrop for risk assets.
Positive Policy Signals
- Government Reserves Precedent: Texas became the first U.S. state to allocate public funds into an independent Bitcoin reserve. Though the initial allocation is only $10 million, the move is symbolically significant.
- Demonstration Effect: This state-level initiative may pave the way for similar actions by other state governments, signaling increasing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
- Crypto Adoption Expansion: FHFA Director Bill Pulte ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore incorporating crypto assets into mortgage risk assessments. The directive calls for a framework to allow borrowers to count crypto holdings (custodied on U.S.-regulated centralized exchanges) as qualifying assets — marking a significant step forward in crypto’s real-world utility.
Investment Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic
- Persistent Geopolitical Risks: Although a ceasefire is in place, the potential for renewed conflict remains. Investors should remain alert to geopolitical uncertainties.
- Volatility Alert: Sudden market swings driven by geopolitical developments remain a real risk — especially the potential for flash crashes — warranting strict exposure controls.
- Strategic Recommendation: Amid multiple tailwinds, investors may consider participating in the rebound, but with a cautious approach. Position sizing should be controlled, and stop-loss mechanisms employed to safeguard against unexpected shocks.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
The crypto market is likely to continue its choppy upward momentum, supported by both easing geopolitical tensions and an improving monetary policy outlook. Texas’s Bitcoin reserve initiative could catalyze similar moves from other governmental entities, while regulatory advancements around crypto-based mortgage asset recognition by U.S. housing authorities further strengthen market confidence.
However, the potential for geopolitical flare-ups remains the key downside risk. Bitcoin may encounter profit-taking pressure at key technical resistance levels, while altcoin performance will largely hinge on improvements in overall market risk appetite. Investors are advised to balance seizing rebound opportunities with maintaining robust risk controls, closely monitor geopolitical developments, and remain attuned to statements from Federal Reserve officials to prepare for potential shifts in market sentiment and volatility.
Bullish Token of the Week: APT
APT: From L1 Competition to Vertical Integration — A Decentralized Hot Storage Breakthrough Backed by Jump Crypto
On June 24, Aptos announced the launch of Shelby, a decentralized hot storage protocol developed in collaboration with crypto powerhouse Jump Crypto. This marks the beginning of a new narrative in decentralized storage, aiming to solve key limitations of traditional decentralized storage solutions — namely slow read speeds and limited monetization potential.
Shelby: Redefining Web3 Storage for Real-Time Utility
Shelby is a decentralized hot storage protocol designed to tackle pain points such as slow Web3 data interactions, real-time monetization for content creators, and data access bottlenecks for AI applications. Unlike traditional decentralized storage projects (e.g., Filecoin), which focus on cold storage, Shelby targets the high-frequency read-write segment — offering millisecond-level latency, high concurrency, and real-time data updates.
Built on Aptos’s high-performance blockchain infrastructure, Shelby leverages the native capabilities of the Move programming language to enable “interaction-as-monetization,” where every read or interaction with data can trigger an economic transaction.
Strategic Shift: From L1 Contender to Infrastructure Integrator
With the launch of Shelby, Aptos signals a shift in strategy — from competing as a standalone high-performance Layer 1 to becoming a vertically integrated infrastructure provider. The goal: to build a full-stack solution combining high-performance settlement + hot storage + data economy, thereby avoiding direct competition with entrenched chains like Solana in high-frequency trading.
Instead of Ethereum’s horizontal scaling through L2s, Aptos’s vertical integration provides a more unified and efficient developer experience, particularly in complex, stateful, and real-time use cases.
Technical Validation in Real Use Cases
Aptos boasts strong technical specs: 600ms time to finality, 30,000 TPS, and $0.000005 per transaction. Shelby offers a real-world application to showcase these capabilities. The Move language has inherent strengths in storage control and state management, and when combined with Aptos’s performance stack, it enables a Web3 user experience that rivals Web2 cloud infrastructure.
Aptos has now built a robust infrastructure triangle: high-performance database, high-performance storage, and high-performance settlement layer — laying a solid foundation for the next generation of decentralized applications.
Jump Crypto: Strategic Endorsement and Technical Muscle
Jump Crypto, a global leader in quantitative market making, has selected Aptos as its sole deeply integrated L1 partner — an emphatic vote of confidence in Aptos’s technical strength and long-term vision.
Jump’s experience in building high-frequency trading infrastructure, real-time risk systems, and low-latency networks gives the market further assurance in the viability of Aptos’s architecture. Its prior successes in projects like Wormhole (cross-chain bridge), Pyth (oracle network), and Firedancer (Solana client optimization) offer a proven playbook for Shelby.
More importantly, Jump’s core philosophy — “identifying constraints with trading logic and solving them with engineering” — aligns closely with Aptos’s relentless focus on performance.
Market Opportunity: A Gateway to the AI and Data Economy
With growing demand for AI applications and real-time data interactions, Shelby positions Aptos to tap into the emerging data economy and AI infrastructure market. While the timeline for these markets remains uncertain, they undeniably represent a new frontier for blockchain utility.
The AI Agent economy, though still in its infancy, already demands high-performance, real-time, granular-value-exchange infrastructure. Unlike traditional content monetization models that rely on platform fees or ad revenue, the AI Agent era will enable direct value exchange — every API call, data access, or inference can be settled in real time.
This new economic model aligns perfectly with Aptos + Shelby’s “interaction-as-monetization” infrastructure. From a demand-supply perspective, the AI Agent economy will generate vast, automated needs for high-frequency, real-time, micro-storage — entirely distinct from traditional enterprise storage, and requiring purpose-built blockchain infrastructure to support it.
On-Chain Data Analysis
As shown in the chart, Aptos’s total value locked (TVL) had been on a downward trend since mid-May. However, following the announcement of its collaboration with Jump Crypto, TVL experienced a short-term rebound. This trend warrants ongoing observation.
As shown in the chart, Aptos’s on-chain DEX volume has surged significantly since mid-June, reaching an average daily volume of $1.8 billion and continuing to trend upward at a rapid pace.
Although Aptos’s current on-chain fees are around $5,000 per day — a relatively modest level compared to other L1s — the data shows a sharp increase of over 60% shortly after the partnership with Jump Crypto was announced.
The chart indicates a strong upward trend in Aptos’s on-chain application fees, which have now reached all-time highs. This reflects a significant uptick in on-chain activity on the network in recent weeks.
Aptos’s stablecoin market cap has shown rapid growth, surpassing $1.2 billion. Since stablecoin liquidity is a key indicator of an L1’s ecosystem health, this trend signals robust and increasing activity within the Aptos ecosystem.
Conclusion
The launch of the Shelby project marks Aptos’s successful strategic pivot from a general-purpose L1 blockchain to a vertically integrated provider of decentralized hot storage infrastructure. The partnership with Jump Crypto not only enhances Aptos’s technical credibility but is also validated by strong on-chain metrics: DEX volume has reached a daily average of $1.8 billion, on-chain fees have grown by over 60%, and stablecoin market cap has surpassed $1.2 billion. These indicators reflect growing market confidence in the Aptos-Jump Crypto alliance. Moreover, Shelby positions Aptos at the forefront of the emerging AI Agent economy and decentralized data infrastructure space.
Bearish Tokens: MAV, OGN
MAV: Deteriorating Fundamentals and Unlocking Pressure
Project Overview and Positioning
Maverick Protocol is a decentralized automated market maker (AMM) protocol that focuses on improving capital efficiency and trading experience through innovative liquidity management mechanisms. By adopting a dynamic liquidity allocation strategy, the protocol aims to provide better yield opportunities for liquidity providers and lower slippage with improved price discovery for traders.
External Market Pressures
- Intensified DeFi Competition: The DeFi ecosystem is saturated with AMM protocols such as Uniswap, Curve, and Balancer, which dominate the market. Newcomers like Maverick face significant challenges in acquiring users and market share.
- Decline in Liquidity Mining Appeal: Following the DeFi Summer hype cycle, the market has normalized, and user enthusiasm for new protocols has waned. The marginal effectiveness of liquidity incentives has diminished, making it difficult for non-leading DeFi projects to attract and retain capital.
Worsening Project Metrics
- TVL Collapse: Maverick Protocol’s total value locked (TVL) has plummeted from a peak of $60.74 million to $11.33 million, representing a massive 81.34% drop. This sharp decline signals substantial capital outflows and a serious loss of investor confidence.
Revenue Model Breakdown: The protocol’s daily on-chain fee revenue has fallen from a peak of $235,900 to just around $1,000 — a 99.98% decrease. This drastic deterioration reflects an almost complete loss of user activity and protocol utility, creating a vicious cycle of declining engagement.
Declining Trading Activity: Although daily trading volume remains around $80 million, it is on a clear downward trajectory, indicating weakening user interest and activity.
Uncompetitive Yield Rates: Yield generation is critical for attracting and retaining DeFi users. However, Maverick Protocol’s average yield stands at just 1.56%, significantly lower than many competing DeFi platforms, making it difficult to maintain user liquidity.
Token Unlock Risk Assessment
Unlock Scale and Structure
On July 1, a total of 55.39 million MAV tokens will be unlocked, representing 2.77% of the total locked supply. Given the current low market liquidity, this unlock is expected to significantly impact the supply-demand balance in the market.
Risk from Unlock Recipients
According to the linear vesting schedule outlined in the whitepaper, this round of unlocks primarily involves tokens allocated to institutional investors and the project team. In light of deteriorating fundamentals, these holders have strong incentives to cash out, adding substantial selling pressure to the market.
Severe Lack of Market Absorption Capacity
MAV’s average daily trading volume is only around $1.4 million. Relative to the size of the upcoming unlock, the token’s liquidity is extremely limited, making it difficult for the market to absorb the additional supply without experiencing significant price impact.
Conclusion
Maverick Protocol is facing a triple threat: deteriorating fundamentals, declining competitiveness, and a major token unlock event. With TVL down 81% and revenue down 99%, the unlocking of 55.39 million MAV tokens could trigger a wave of selling, creating sustained downward pressure on the token’s price.
OGN: Niche Sector Constraints and Token Unlock Pressure Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals
Project Overview and Positioning
Origin Protocol is a decentralized e-commerce platform and cryptocurrency project aiming to build a more open, fair, and efficient online marketplace. The project primarily focuses on the Internet of Things (IoT) sector, leveraging blockchain technology to reshape traditional e-commerce models and provide users with decentralized goods and services.
External Market Pressures
- Limited Market Capacity: The IoT sector is a highly niche vertical with limited participants and underdeveloped commercial use cases. This restricts the project’s potential for growth and limits its ability to expand its user base and ecosystem.
- Lack of Investor Attention: Since its inception, Origin Protocol has struggled to gain traction and recognition among investors. Its business model and value proposition have failed to stand out in today’s competitive market, leading to weak investor interest.
Worsening Project Metrics
- TVL Decline: Origin Protocol’s total value locked (TVL) has dropped from a historical high of $239 million to $127 million — a 46.86% decrease — and continues to trend downward. This ongoing decline reflects continuous capital outflows and weakening market confidence.
Minimal Revenue: The protocol generates an average of only around $2,000 in daily on-chain revenue. Relative to its $127 million in TVL, this represents extremely low capital efficiency, highlighting poor protocol usage and limited value creation.
Low User Engagement: The protocol’s thin revenue stream also reflects a low and declining user base, which creates a vicious cycle of user attrition and capital flight.
Token Unlock Risk Assessment
- Unlock Scale and Structure: On July 1, 28.69 million OGN tokens are scheduled to be unlocked, representing 2.04% of the total locked supply. Given the current liquidity constraints in the market, this unlock is expected to significantly disrupt the supply-demand balance.
- Risk from Unlock Recipients: According to the project’s linear vesting schedule, this round of unlocks primarily involves tokens allocated to institutional investors and the core team. Amid worsening fundamentals, these holders are likely to seek liquidity, increasing the risk of aggressive selling.
- Insufficient Market Absorption Capacity: OGN’s average daily trading volume is only around $750,000. Relative to the unlock size, this level of liquidity is insufficient to absorb the additional token supply without severe downward price pressure.
Conclusion
Origin Protocol is facing a combination of structural disadvantages, deteriorating on-chain metrics, and a significant token unlock event. In a niche sector with limited growth prospects, a 46.86% drop in TVL and persistently weak revenue signal declining user trust. The upcoming unlock of 28.69 million OGN tokens could trigger a cascade of sell pressure, posing sustained downside risk for the token’s price.
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose slightly from 28% to 34%. BTC increased by 6.16% this week, ETH by 9.14%, and TOTAL3 by 3.33%. Despite these gains, the overall altcoin market remains in a bearish zone, with sentiment still at fear levels.
Overall Market Theme Overview
By Weekly Returns, the CeFi Sector Outperformed, While the AI Sector Underperformed
- CeFi Sector: The CeFi sector saw the strongest performance this week. The major tokens in this sector — BNB, BGB, and OKB — account for 93.21% of its market weight. Their respective weekly performances were +0.71%, +1.31%, and -5.93%. Despite mixed results among these tokens, the sector still outperformed others, most of which posted uniform losses.
- AI Sector: The AI sector posted the worst returns this week. Key tokens including TAO, FET, RENDER, WLD, VIRTUAL, and FARTCOIN make up 91.63% of the sector. Their respective weekly returns were -8.96%, -4.26%, -7.01%, -7.49%, -15.82%, and -6.38%. The overall steep declines across these projects dragged down the entire sector.
Major Upcoming Crypto-Related Events Next Week
- Tuesday, July 1: Global central bank governors to participate in a panel discussion; U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday, July 2: U.S. June ADP Employment Change
- Thursday, July 3: U.S. June Unemployment Rate; U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted)
Summary
This week, the crypto market displayed a complex divergence. While Bitcoin experienced a choppy upward trend, most altcoins continued to decline. However, several positive developments are providing meaningful support for the market: easing geopolitical tensions, more dovish monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve, and pro-crypto regulatory signals — such as Texas allocating government reserves to Bitcoin — are injecting renewed optimism.
Notably, the strong performance of the stablecoin market, with USDT growing by $1.6 billion and USDC maintaining its upward trajectory, indicates continued capital inflow regardless of market direction. This provides a solid liquidity foundation for upcoming price movements.
In the current market environment, project fundamentals and technological innovation have become critical to investment value. APT, through its collaboration with Jump Crypto to launch the Shelby hot storage protocol, has successfully completed a strategic pivot and validated its technology. On-chain metrics show that its DEX trading volume has reached $1.8 billion daily, and stablecoin market cap has exceeded $1.2 billion — positioning APT to lead in the emerging AI Agent economy.
Looking ahead to next week, the market is expected to continue its upward consolidation under the influence of these positive catalysts. However, investors should remain cautiously optimistic. Key U.S. economic data releases will provide further insight into Fed policy expectations, while geopolitical instability remains a key risk. Investors are advised to focus on high-quality projects with real-world use cases and strong technical backing, while carefully managing risk exposure, implementing stop-loss measures, and preparing for potential market volatility.
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